All predictions

Within the next decade the metaverse will reach a billion people.

Source: Meta Platforms (Wikipedia)

An uncrewed Starship will launch toward Mars in the late-2026 transfer window.

Source: Musk says 50-50 chance of sending uncrewed Starship to Mars by late 2026 (Al Jazeera)

Tesla's robotaxi service will cover half the US population by the end of 2025.

Source: Tesla Robotaxi will cover half of US population by end of the year (Electrek)

The 2024 Atlantic season will be extremely active: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major (April outlook).

Source: CSU predicts 23 named storms and 11 hurricanes for 2024 (WUSF)

Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election.

Source: Lichtman assessing why he was wrong about Trump win (NewsNation)

Kamala Harris carries Iowa in 2024 (final Iowa Poll: Harris +3).

Source: Ann Selzer (Wikipedia)

Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election.

Source: 2024 United States presidential election (Wikipedia)

Containing inflation will take five years of unemployment above 5%, or a shorter spell at a higher rate.

Source: Larry Summers says unemployment must rise to cool inflation (Fortune)

The US will fall into a severe, long and ugly recession starting late 2022 and lasting through 2023.

Source: Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini expects a long and ugly recession (Fortune)

SVB Financial is a buy and one of the biggest winners of 2023 so far.

Source: Jim Cramer told viewers to buy Silicon Valley Bank stock a month before collapse (Paleofuture)

SpaceX will land cargo ships on Mars in 2022.

Source: SpaceX Starship (Wikipedia)

The 2021 rise in inflation will be transitory.

Source: Paul Krugman (Wikipedia)

The 2021 American Rescue Plan risks setting off inflation of a kind not seen in a generation.

Source: Inflation archives (Lawrence H. Summers)

Tesla will have over a million robotaxis on the road in 2020.

Source: Elon Musk promises over a million Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2020 (TheStreet)

The 2020 Atlantic season will be more active than average: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes (April outlook).

Source: 2020 Atlantic hurricane season (Wikipedia)

Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election.

Source: Allan Lichtman says Trump will lose in 2020 (CNN)

Donald Trump carries Iowa in 2020 (final Iowa Poll: Trump +7).

Source: Ann Selzer (Wikipedia)

Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election.

Source: 2020 United States presidential election (Wikipedia)

Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election.

Source: 2020 United States presidential election (Wikipedia)

The conditions are in place for a recession and financial crisis in 2020.

Source: The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis (Project Syndicate)

The US will probably have close to zero new COVID-19 cases by the end of April 2020.

Source: COVID-19 pandemic in the United States (Wikipedia)

The US faces secular stagnation: weak demand will keep interest rates low for years.

Source: Secular stagnation (Wikipedia)

A Tesla will drive itself from Los Angeles to New York with no one touching the controls by the end of 2017.

Source: Tesla Autopilot (Wikipedia)

There is no chance the iPhone will get any significant market share.

Source: Steve Ballmer (Wikipedia)

Tesla Model 3 deliveries will begin in late 2017.

Source: Tesla Model 3 (Wikipedia)

After Trump's election, markets will never recover and a global recession is likely.

Source: Paul Krugman (Wikipedia)

Donald Trump wins the 2016 presidential election.

Source: Did Allan Lichtman correctly predict 2016? (iMediaEthics)

Donald Trump carries Iowa in 2016 (final Iowa Poll: Trump +7).

Source: Ann Selzer (Wikipedia)

Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election.

Source: 2016 United States presidential election (Wikipedia)

Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election.

Source: Why I ate a bug (Caltech Alumni)

Donald Trump does not win the 2016 Republican nomination.

Source: Nate Silver got Donald Trump all wrong, and he knows it (Bustle)

Large US budget deficits will not drive interest rates up while the economy stays depressed.

Source: Paul Krugman (Wikipedia)

Joni Ernst wins the 2014 Iowa Senate race (final Iowa Poll: Ernst 51%, Braley 44%).

Source: 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa (Wikipedia)

The 2013 Atlantic season will be active: 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major (April outlook).

Source: 2013 season much quieter than predicted (Colorado State University)

Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012.

Source: Allan Lichtman (Wikipedia)

Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012.

Source: Nate Silver (Wikipedia)

Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012.

Source: How'd we do? (Princeton Election Consortium)

Neither Redbox nor Netflix is a serious competitive threat to Blockbuster.

Source: Blockbuster LLC (Wikipedia)

Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than the previous winter, with about a 1 in 7 chance of a cold one.

Source: The very cold winter of 2009-10 (TheWeatherOutlook)

Summer 2009 in the UK is odds-on to be a barbecue summer: warmer and drier than recent ones.

Source: Met Office (Wikipedia)

The US faces a housing bust, a deep recession and a banking crisis.

Source: Nouriel Roubini (Wikipedia)

Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election.

Source: The Keys to the White House (Wikipedia)

Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election.

Source: 2008 United States presidential election (Wikipedia)

Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election.

Source: How'd we do? (Princeton Election Consortium)

Bear Stearns is fine; viewers should not move their money out of it.

Source: Bear Stearns (Wikipedia)

Barack Obama wins the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses (final Iowa Poll: Obama 32%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 24%).

Source: Ann Selzer (Wikipedia)

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than average (April outlook).

Source: 2005 Atlantic hurricane season (Wikipedia)

By 2005 or so it will be clear that the internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.

Source: Paul Krugman (Wikipedia)

George W. Bush wins re-election in 2004.

Source: The Keys to the White House (Wikipedia)

John Kerry wins the 2004 presidential election.

Source: In a hot election, Sam Wang sticks to the math (Princeton Info)

Ten internet infrastructure stocks (Exodus, InfoSpace, Inktomi, VeriSign and six others) are the winners of the new world and worth owning.

Source: The Winners of the New World (TheStreet)

Al Gore wins the 2000 presidential election.

Source: Allan Lichtman (Wikipedia)

England will not exist in the year 2000 (offered at even money).

Source: Paul R. Ehrlich (Wikipedia)

Bill Clinton wins re-election in 1996.

Source: The Keys to the White House (Wikipedia)

Bill Clinton wins the 1992 presidential election.

Source: The Keys to the White House (Wikipedia)

The prices of chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten will rise between 1980 and 1990.

Source: Simon-Ehrlich wager (Wikipedia)

George H. W. Bush wins the 1988 presidential election.

Source: The Keys to the White House (Wikipedia)

There is no hurricane on the way to the UK.

Source: Great storm of 1987 (Wikipedia)

Ronald Reagan wins re-election in 1984.

Source: The Keys to the White House (Wikipedia)

In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death.

Source: The Population Bomb (Wikipedia)