Prediction track records

1. 1 CSU hurricane forecast teamColorado State University's seasonal Atlantic hurricane outlook, led by Phil Klotzbach Weather forecasters 4 resolved3 right · 1 wrong 66%Mostly right
2. 2 Ann SelzerPollster behind the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, Selzer & Company Election forecasters 5 resolved4 right · 1 wrong 61%Leans right
3. 3 Allan LichtmanHistorian at American University, author of The Keys to the White House Election forecasters 11 resolved8 right · 1 wrong · 2 partly 59%Leans right
4. 4 Sam WangNeuroscientist, runs the Princeton Election Consortium Election forecasters 5 resolved3 right · 2 wrong 58%Leans right
5. 5 Larry SummersEconomist, former US Treasury Secretary Pundits 3 resolved2 right · 1 wrong 56%Leans right
6. 6 Nate SilverFounder of FiveThirtyEight, now writes Silver Bulletin Election forecasters 6 resolved3 right · 3 wrong 54%Coin flip
7. 7 Nouriel RoubiniEconomist at NYU Stern, nicknamed Dr. Doom Pundits 3 resolved1 right · 1 wrong · 1 partly 43%Leans wrong
8. 8 Paul KrugmanEconomist, New York Times columnist from 2000 to 2024 Pundits 4 resolved1 right · 3 wrong 37%Leans wrong
9. 9 Jim CramerHost of CNBC's Mad Money Pundits 3 resolved0 right · 3 wrong 31%Mostly wrong
10. 10 Elon MuskCEO of Tesla and SpaceX CEOs 6 resolved1 right · 5 wrong 25%Mostly wrong
11. Paul EhrlichBiologist, author of The Population Bomb Pundits 3 resolved0 right · 3 wrong 47%Record faded
12. Jim KeyesCEO of Blockbuster from 2007 to 2011 CEOs 1 resolved0 right · 1 wrong –Too few to score
13. Mark ZuckerbergCEO of Meta CEOs None resolved1 open –Too few to score
14. Met OfficeThe UK's national weather service Weather forecasters 2 resolved0 right · 2 wrong –Too few to score
15. Michael FishBBC weather presenter from 1974 to 2004 Weather forecasters 1 resolved0 right · 1 wrong –Too few to score
16. Steve BallmerCEO of Microsoft from 2000 to 2014 CEOs 1 resolved0 right · 1 wrong –Too few to score