Prediction Track Record

Paul Krugman: prediction track record

Economist, New York Times columnist from 2000 to 2024

Credibility 37% Leans wrong 10 years half-life
All-time
33%no decay
Resolved
4
Right
1
Wrong
3
Last resolved
21 Jul 2022

Credibility half-life

Paul Krugman: credibility half-life chartCredibility of Paul Krugman from 31 Dec 2004 to 14 Oct 2026, with a 10 years half-life. 4 resolved predictions marked on the line. Now 37%.0%25%50%75%100%200520102015202020252005: By 2005 or so it will be clear that the internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. (wrong)Dec 2015: Large US budget deficits will not drive interest rates up while the economy stays depressed. (right)Nov 2016: After Trump's election, markets will never recover and a global recession is likely. (wrong)21 Jul 2022: The 2021 rise in inflation will be transitory. (wrong)37%coin flip

Scored 14 Oct 2026. How the score works

Resolved predictions

PredictionMadeResolvedOutcomeEffect on score

The 2021 rise in inflation will be transitory.

US inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. Krugman published a column titled "I was wrong about inflation".

Source: Paul Krugman (Wikipedia)

 Wrong 45% → 35% (−9.8 pts)

After Trump's election, markets will never recover and a global recession is likely.

US stock indices reached record highs within weeks. Krugman retracted the call three days later.

Source: Paul Krugman (Wikipedia)

 Wrong 57% → 44% (−13.0 pts)

Large US budget deficits will not drive interest rates up while the economy stays depressed.

The 10-year Treasury yield averaged under 3% in every year from 2011 to 2015.

Source: Paul Krugman (Wikipedia)

 Right 40% → 57% (+17.1 pts)

By 2005 or so it will be clear that the internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.

Source: Paul Krugman (Wikipedia)

 Wrong 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts)

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