Allan Lichtman: prediction track record
Historian at American University, author of The Keys to the White House
- All-time
- 77%no decay
- Resolved
- 11
- Right
- 8
- Wrong
- 1
- Partly
- 2
- Last resolved
- 5 Nov 2024
Credibility half-life
- Right
- Wrong
- Partly
- Coin flip, 50%
Scored 14 Oct 2026. How the score works
Resolved predictions
| Prediction | Made | Resolved | Outcome | Effect on score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election. Lichtman said afterwards he was taking time to assess why he was wrong. Source: Lichtman assessing why he was wrong about Trump win (NewsNation) |
Wrong | 72% → 60% (−12.1 pts) | ||
Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election. |
Right | 69% → 74% (+5.3 pts) | ||
Donald Trump wins the 2016 presidential election. Trump won the presidency but lost the popular vote, which Lichtman's own book said the keys predict. Source: Did Allan Lichtman correctly predict 2016? (iMediaEthics) |
Partly | 76% → 71% (−4.4 pts) | ||
Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012. Source: Allan Lichtman (Wikipedia) |
Right | 74% → 79% (+4.6 pts) | ||
Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election. |
Right | 72% → 77% (+5.1 pts) | ||
George W. Bush wins re-election in 2004. |
Right | 68% → 74% (+5.9 pts) | ||
Al Gore wins the 2000 presidential election. Gore won the popular vote, which the keys then claimed to predict; George W. Bush won the presidency after Bush v. Gore. Source: Allan Lichtman (Wikipedia) |
Partly | 76% → 70% (−5.0 pts) | ||
Bill Clinton wins re-election in 1996. |
Right | 73% → 79% (+5.6 pts) | ||
Bill Clinton wins the 1992 presidential election. |
Right | 70% → 77% (+6.9 pts) | ||
George H. W. Bush wins the 1988 presidential election. |
Right | 64% → 73% (+9.7 pts) | ||
Ronald Reagan wins re-election in 1984. |
Right | 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts) |
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