https://alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev/feed.xml 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2025-12-31:elon-musk/2025-robotaxi-half-us 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Tesla's robotaxi service will cover half the US population by the end of 2025. Made 23 Jul 2025, resolved 31 Dec 2025. At the end of 2025 the service ran in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area only. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 29% → 25% (−4.6 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2024-11-30:csu-hurricane-forecast/2024-season 2024-11-30T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. The 2024 Atlantic season will be extremely active: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major (April outlook). Made 4 Apr 2024, resolved 30 Nov 2024. 2024 had 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Effect on CSU hurricane forecast team's credibility: 58% → 67% (+9.3 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2024-11-05:allan-lichtman/2024-president 2024-11-05T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election. Made 5 Sep 2024, resolved 5 Nov 2024. Lichtman said afterwards he was taking time to assess why he was wrong. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 72% → 60% (−12.1 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2024-11-05:ann-selzer/2024-iowa-president 2024-11-05T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Kamala Harris carries Iowa in 2024 (final Iowa Poll: Harris +3). Made 2 Nov 2024, resolved 5 Nov 2024. Trump won Iowa by 13.2 points. Selzer retired from election polling later that month. Effect on Ann Selzer's credibility: 76% → 61% (−14.8 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2024-11-05:nate-silver/2024-president 2024-11-05T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election. Made 5 Nov 2024, resolved 5 Nov 2024. Silver Bulletin's final model had Harris winning 40,012 of 80,000 simulations, effectively a coin flip. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 55% → 54% (−0.9 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2024-10-10:larry-summers/2022-unemployment-5pct 2024-10-10T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Containing inflation will take five years of unemployment above 5%, or a shorter spell at a higher rate. Made Jun 2022, resolved 10 Oct 2024. Inflation fell to 2.4% by September 2024 while unemployment stayed at or below 4.3%. Effect on Larry Summers's credibility: 72% → 56% (−15.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2023-12-31:nouriel-roubini/2022-long-ugly-recession 2023-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. The US will fall into a severe, long and ugly recession starting late 2022 and lasting through 2023. Made 19 Sep 2022, resolved 31 Dec 2023. The US economy grew in 2023 and no recession was declared. Effect on Nouriel Roubini's credibility: 56% → 42% (−13.5 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2023-03-10:jim-cramer/2023-svb 2023-03-10T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. SVB Financial is a buy and one of the biggest winners of 2023 so far. Made 8 Feb 2023, resolved 10 Mar 2023. Regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank on 10 March 2023. Effect on Jim Cramer's credibility: 39% → 28% (−10.9 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2022-12-31:elon-musk/2017-mars-cargo-2022 2022-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. SpaceX will land cargo ships on Mars in 2022. Made 29 Sep 2017, resolved 31 Dec 2022. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 33% → 28% (−5.4 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2022-07-21:paul-krugman/2021-inflation-transitory 2022-07-21T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. The 2021 rise in inflation will be transitory. Made 2021, resolved 21 Jul 2022. US inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. Krugman published a column titled "I was wrong about inflation". Effect on Paul Krugman's credibility: 45% → 35% (−9.8 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2022-07-13:larry-summers/2021-stimulus-inflation 2022-07-13T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. The 2021 American Rescue Plan risks setting off inflation of a kind not seen in a generation. Made 4 Feb 2021, resolved 13 Jul 2022. US consumer price inflation reached 9.1% for June 2022, the highest since 1981. Effect on Larry Summers's credibility: 65% → 74% (+9.2 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-12-31:elon-musk/2019-million-robotaxis 2020-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Tesla will have over a million robotaxis on the road in 2020. Made 22 Apr 2019, resolved 31 Dec 2020. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 39% → 32% (−7.1 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-11-30:csu-hurricane-forecast/2020-season 2020-11-30T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. The 2020 Atlantic season will be more active than average: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes (April outlook). Made 2 Apr 2020, resolved 30 Nov 2020. 2020 set a record with 30 named storms, so the direction was right and the counts far too low. Effect on CSU hurricane forecast team's credibility: 46% → 59% (+13.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-11-03:allan-lichtman/2020-president 2020-11-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election. Made 5 Aug 2020, resolved 3 Nov 2020. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 69% → 74% (+5.3 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-11-03:ann-selzer/2020-iowa-president 2020-11-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Donald Trump carries Iowa in 2020 (final Iowa Poll: Trump +7). Made 31 Oct 2020, resolved 3 Nov 2020. Trump won Iowa by 8.2 points, while most other polls showed a close race. Effect on Ann Selzer's credibility: 74% → 79% (+5.4 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-11-03:nate-silver/2020-president 2020-11-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election. Made 3 Nov 2020, resolved 3 Nov 2020. Final FiveThirtyEight forecast: Biden favoured in 89 of 100 simulations. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 49% → 56% (+7.3 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-11-03:sam-wang/2020-president 2020-11-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election. Made Nov 2020, resolved 3 Nov 2020. Effect on Sam Wang's credibility: 49% → 59% (+10.0 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-06-08:nouriel-roubini/2018-recession-2020 2020-06-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Partly. The conditions are in place for a recession and financial crisis in 2020. Made 13 Sep 2018, resolved 8 Jun 2020. A US recession did begin in 2020, but it was caused by the pandemic rather than the factors the article listed. Effect on Nouriel Roubini's credibility: 59% → 57% (−2.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-04-30:elon-musk/2020-covid-zero 2020-04-30T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. The US will probably have close to zero new COVID-19 cases by the end of April 2020. Made 19 Mar 2020, resolved 30 Apr 2020. The US was recording tens of thousands of new cases a day at the end of April 2020. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 50% → 39% (−10.6 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2019-12-15:larry-summers/2013-secular-stagnation 2019-12-15T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. The US faces secular stagnation: weak demand will keep interest rates low for years. Made Nov 2013, resolved Dec 2019. The Federal Reserve's policy rate stayed at or below 2.5% from 2008 through 2019. Effect on Larry Summers's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2017-12-31:elon-musk/2016-coast-to-coast 2017-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. A Tesla will drive itself from Los Angeles to New York with no one touching the controls by the end of 2017. Made 19 Oct 2016, resolved 31 Dec 2017. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 66% → 50% (−16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2017-10-15:steve-ballmer/2007-iphone-share 2017-10-15T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. There is no chance the iPhone will get any significant market share. Made 30 Apr 2007, resolved Oct 2017. The iPhone became one of the two dominant smartphone platforms; Microsoft stopped developing Windows Phone in 2017. Effect on Steve Ballmer's credibility: 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2017-07-28:elon-musk/2016-model-3-2017 2017-07-28T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Tesla Model 3 deliveries will begin in late 2017. Made 31 Mar 2016, resolved 28 Jul 2017. The first 30 cars were handed over on 28 July 2017; volume production took much longer. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-11-15:paul-krugman/2016-markets-never 2016-11-15T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. After Trump's election, markets will never recover and a global recession is likely. Made 9 Nov 2016, resolved Nov 2016. US stock indices reached record highs within weeks. Krugman retracted the call three days later. Effect on Paul Krugman's credibility: 57% → 44% (−13.0 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-11-08:allan-lichtman/2016-president 2016-11-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Partly. Donald Trump wins the 2016 presidential election. Made 23 Sep 2016, resolved 8 Nov 2016. Trump won the presidency but lost the popular vote, which Lichtman's own book said the keys predict. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 76% → 71% (−4.4 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-11-08:ann-selzer/2016-iowa-president 2016-11-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Donald Trump carries Iowa in 2016 (final Iowa Poll: Trump +7). Made 5 Nov 2016, resolved 8 Nov 2016. Trump won Iowa by 9.4 points. Effect on Ann Selzer's credibility: 71% → 77% (+6.6 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-11-08:nate-silver/2016-president 2016-11-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election. Made 8 Nov 2016, resolved 8 Nov 2016. Final FiveThirtyEight forecast gave Clinton a 71.4% chance, higher uncertainty than most other models. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 53% → 48% (−4.6 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-11-08:sam-wang/2016-president 2016-11-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election. Made 8 Nov 2016, resolved 8 Nov 2016. The consortium gave Clinton more than a 99% chance. Wang had promised to eat a bug if Trump won 240 electoral votes, and did so on CNN. Effect on Sam Wang's credibility: 62% → 49% (−12.8 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-07-19:nate-silver/2016-trump-nomination 2016-07-19T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Donald Trump does not win the 2016 Republican nomination. Made Aug 2015, resolved 19 Jul 2016. Silver put Trump's chances at about 2%, a judgement he later said was not model-based and called a mistake. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 68% → 53% (−15.2 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2015-12-15:paul-krugman/2009-deficits-rates 2015-12-15T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Large US budget deficits will not drive interest rates up while the economy stays depressed. Made 2009, resolved Dec 2015. The 10-year Treasury yield averaged under 3% in every year from 2011 to 2015. Effect on Paul Krugman's credibility: 40% → 57% (+17.1 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2014-11-04:ann-selzer/2014-iowa-senate 2014-11-04T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Joni Ernst wins the 2014 Iowa Senate race (final Iowa Poll: Ernst 51%, Braley 44%). Made 1 Nov 2014, resolved 4 Nov 2014. Ernst won by 8.5 points. It was the only late poll close to the final margin. Effect on Ann Selzer's credibility: 62% → 72% (+10.5 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2013-11-30:csu-hurricane-forecast/2013-season 2013-11-30T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. The 2013 Atlantic season will be active: 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major (April outlook). Made 10 Apr 2013, resolved 30 Nov 2013. 2013 had 14 named storms, 2 hurricanes and no major hurricanes. Effect on CSU hurricane forecast team's credibility: 61% → 44% (−17.1 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2012-11-06:allan-lichtman/2012-president 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012. Made 2010, resolved 6 Nov 2012. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 74% → 79% (+4.6 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2012-11-06:nate-silver/2012-president 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012. Made 6 Nov 2012, resolved 6 Nov 2012. Final forecast gave Obama a 90.9% chance and called all 50 states correctly. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 64% → 71% (+7.2 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2012-11-06:sam-wang/2012-president 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012. Made Nov 2012, resolved 6 Nov 2012. Effect on Sam Wang's credibility: 53% → 64% (+10.9 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2010-09-23:jim-keyes/2008-netflix-radar 2010-09-23T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Neither Redbox nor Netflix is a serious competitive threat to Blockbuster. Made Dec 2008, resolved 23 Sep 2010. Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy on 23 September 2010. Effect on Jim Keyes's credibility: 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2010-02-28:met-office/2009-mild-winter 2010-02-28T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than the previous winter, with about a 1 in 7 chance of a cold one. Made 23 Jul 2009, resolved 28 Feb 2010. It was the UK's coldest winter since 1978/79, 2.0°C below the 1971-2000 average. Effect on Met Office's credibility: 34% → 29% (−5.0 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2009-08-31:met-office/2009-barbecue-summer 2009-08-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Summer 2009 in the UK is odds-on to be a barbecue summer: warmer and drier than recent ones. Made 30 Apr 2009, resolved 31 Aug 2009. July 2009 was one of the wettest on record in the UK. Effect on Met Office's credibility: 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2008-12-01:nouriel-roubini/2006-housing-crisis 2008-12-01T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. The US faces a housing bust, a deep recession and a banking crisis. Made 7 Sep 2006, resolved 1 Dec 2008. Made in a speech at the IMF. The NBER later dated the recession from December 2007. Effect on Nouriel Roubini's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2008-11-04:allan-lichtman/2008-president 2008-11-04T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election. Made 2008, resolved 4 Nov 2008. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 72% → 77% (+5.1 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2008-11-04:nate-silver/2008-president 2008-11-04T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election. Made 4 Nov 2008, resolved 4 Nov 2008. The final FiveThirtyEight map also called 49 of 50 states correctly, missing Indiana. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2008-11-04:sam-wang/2008-president 2008-11-04T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election. Made Nov 2008, resolved 4 Nov 2008. Effect on Sam Wang's credibility: 36% → 53% (+17.0 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2008-03-16:jim-cramer/2008-bear-stearns 2008-03-16T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Bear Stearns is fine; viewers should not move their money out of it. Made 11 Mar 2008, resolved 16 Mar 2008. Five days later Bear Stearns agreed to a rescue sale to JPMorgan at $2 a share. Effect on Jim Cramer's credibility: 38% → 28% (−10.5 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2008-01-03:ann-selzer/2008-iowa-caucus 2008-01-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses (final Iowa Poll: Obama 32%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 24%). Made 1 Jan 2008, resolved 3 Jan 2008. Effect on Ann Selzer's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2005-11-30:csu-hurricane-forecast/2005-season 2005-11-30T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than average (April outlook). Made Apr 2005, resolved 30 Nov 2005. 2005 produced 15 hurricanes, a record at the time, including Katrina. Effect on CSU hurricane forecast team's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2005-07-01:paul-krugman/1998-internet-fax 2005-07-01T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. By 2005 or so it will be clear that the internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. Made Jun 1998, resolved 2005. Effect on Paul Krugman's credibility: 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2004-11-02:allan-lichtman/2004-president 2004-11-02T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. George W. Bush wins re-election in 2004. Made 2004, resolved 2 Nov 2004. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 68% → 74% (+5.9 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2004-11-02:sam-wang/2004-president 2004-11-02T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. John Kerry wins the 2004 presidential election. Made Nov 2004, resolved 2 Nov 2004. His poll aggregate pointed to Bush; he overrode it with an assumption about undecided voters and later called that a humbling mistake. Effect on Sam Wang's credibility: 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2001-05-15:jim-cramer/2000-winners-new-world 2001-05-15T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Ten internet infrastructure stocks (Exodus, InfoSpace, Inktomi, VeriSign and six others) are the winners of the new world and worth owning. Made 29 Feb 2000, resolved May 2001. Fifteen months later Money magazine reported the list had fallen 82%. Effect on Jim Cramer's credibility: 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2000-12-12:allan-lichtman/2000-president 2000-12-12T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Partly. Al Gore wins the 2000 presidential election. Made 2000, resolved 12 Dec 2000. Gore won the popular vote, which the keys then claimed to predict; George W. Bush won the presidency after Bush v. Gore. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 76% → 70% (−5.0 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2000-01-01:paul-ehrlich/1971-england-2000 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. England will not exist in the year 2000 (offered at even money). Made 1971, resolved 1 Jan 2000. Effect on Paul Ehrlich's credibility: 36% → 40% (+3.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1996-11-05:allan-lichtman/1996-president 1996-11-05T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Bill Clinton wins re-election in 1996. Made 1996, resolved 5 Nov 1996. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 73% → 79% (+5.6 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1992-11-03:allan-lichtman/1992-president 1992-11-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Bill Clinton wins the 1992 presidential election. Made 1992, resolved 3 Nov 1992. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 70% → 77% (+6.9 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1990-09-29:paul-ehrlich/1980-metals-wager 1990-09-29T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. The prices of chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten will rise between 1980 and 1990. Made 29 Sep 1980, resolved 29 Sep 1990. All five fell in inflation-adjusted terms and Ehrlich paid Julian Simon on the wager. Effect on Paul Ehrlich's credibility: 40% → 29% (−11.6 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1988-11-08:allan-lichtman/1988-president 1988-11-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. George H. W. Bush wins the 1988 presidential election. Made 1988, resolved 8 Nov 1988. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 64% → 73% (+9.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1987-10-16:michael-fish/1987-no-hurricane 1987-10-16T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. There is no hurricane on the way to the UK. Made 15 Oct 1987, resolved 16 Oct 1987. Hours later the Great Storm of 1987 brought hurricane-force gusts to southern England. Fish has said the remark referred to a storm near Florida. Effect on Michael Fish's credibility: 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1984-11-06:allan-lichtman/1984-president 1984-11-06T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Ronald Reagan wins re-election in 1984. Made 1982, resolved 6 Nov 1984. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1979-12-31:paul-ehrlich/1968-mass-starvation 1979-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death. Made 1968, resolved 31 Dec 1979. Famines occurred, but nothing on that scale; food output grew faster than population through the Green Revolution. Effect on Paul Ehrlich's credibility: 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts).