Ann Selzer: prediction track record
Pollster behind the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, Selzer & Company
- All-time
- 71%no decay
- Resolved
- 5
- Right
- 4
- Wrong
- 1
- Last resolved
- 5 Nov 2024
Credibility half-life
- Right
- Wrong
- Partly
- Coin flip, 50%
Scored 14 Oct 2026. How the score works
Resolved predictions
| Prediction | Made | Resolved | Outcome | Effect on score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Kamala Harris carries Iowa in 2024 (final Iowa Poll: Harris +3). Trump won Iowa by 13.2 points. Selzer retired from election polling later that month. Source: Ann Selzer (Wikipedia) |
Wrong | 76% → 61% (−14.8 pts) | ||
Donald Trump carries Iowa in 2020 (final Iowa Poll: Trump +7). Trump won Iowa by 8.2 points, while most other polls showed a close race. Source: Ann Selzer (Wikipedia) |
Right | 74% → 79% (+5.4 pts) | ||
Donald Trump carries Iowa in 2016 (final Iowa Poll: Trump +7). Trump won Iowa by 9.4 points. Source: Ann Selzer (Wikipedia) |
Right | 71% → 77% (+6.6 pts) | ||
Joni Ernst wins the 2014 Iowa Senate race (final Iowa Poll: Ernst 51%, Braley 44%). Ernst won by 8.5 points. It was the only late poll close to the final margin. Source: 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa (Wikipedia) |
Right | 62% → 72% (+10.5 pts) | ||
Barack Obama wins the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses (final Iowa Poll: Obama 32%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 24%). Source: Ann Selzer (Wikipedia) |
Right | 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts) |
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