Prediction Track Record

Nouriel Roubini: prediction track record

Economist at NYU Stern, nicknamed Dr. Doom

Credibility 43% Leans wrong 10 years half-life
All-time
50%no decay
Resolved
3
Right
1
Wrong
1
Partly
1
Last resolved
31 Dec 2023

Credibility half-life

Nouriel Roubini: credibility half-life chartCredibility of Nouriel Roubini from 2 Jun 2008 to 14 Oct 2026, with a 10 years half-life. 3 resolved predictions marked on the line. Now 43%.0%25%50%75%100%20102015202020251 Dec 2008: The US faces a housing bust, a deep recession and a banking crisis. (right)8 Jun 2020: The conditions are in place for a recession and financial crisis in 2020. (partly)31 Dec 2023: The US will fall into a severe, long and ugly recession starting late 2022 and lasting through 2023. (wrong)43%coin flip

Scored 14 Oct 2026. How the score works

Resolved predictions

PredictionMadeResolvedOutcomeEffect on score

The US will fall into a severe, long and ugly recession starting late 2022 and lasting through 2023.

The US economy grew in 2023 and no recession was declared.

Source: Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini expects a long and ugly recession (Fortune)

 Wrong 56% → 42% (−13.5 pts)

The conditions are in place for a recession and financial crisis in 2020.

A US recession did begin in 2020, but it was caused by the pandemic rather than the factors the article listed.

Source: The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis (Project Syndicate)

 Partly 59% → 57% (−2.7 pts)

The US faces a housing bust, a deep recession and a banking crisis.

Made in a speech at the IMF. The NBER later dated the recession from December 2007.

Source: Nouriel Roubini (Wikipedia)

 Right 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts)

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