Elon Musk: prediction track record
CEO of Tesla and SpaceX
- All-time
- 25%no decay
- Resolved
- 6
- Right
- 1
- Wrong
- 5
- Last resolved
- 31 Dec 2025
- Next due
- 31 Dec 2026
Credibility half-life
- Right
- Wrong
- Partly
- Coin flip, 50%
Scored 14 Oct 2026. How the score works
Open predictions
- Resolves
An uncrewed Starship will launch toward Mars in the late-2026 transfer window.
Musk put the chance at 50-50.
Source: Musk says 50-50 chance of sending uncrewed Starship to Mars by late 2026 (Al Jazeera)
Resolved predictions
| Prediction | Made | Resolved | Outcome | Effect on score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tesla's robotaxi service will cover half the US population by the end of 2025. At the end of 2025 the service ran in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area only. Source: Tesla Robotaxi will cover half of US population by end of the year (Electrek) |
Wrong | 29% → 25% (−4.6 pts) | ||
SpaceX will land cargo ships on Mars in 2022. Source: SpaceX Starship (Wikipedia) |
Wrong | 33% → 28% (−5.4 pts) | ||
Tesla will have over a million robotaxis on the road in 2020. Source: Elon Musk promises over a million Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2020 (TheStreet) |
Wrong | 39% → 32% (−7.1 pts) | ||
The US will probably have close to zero new COVID-19 cases by the end of April 2020. The US was recording tens of thousands of new cases a day at the end of April 2020. |
Wrong | 50% → 39% (−10.6 pts) | ||
A Tesla will drive itself from Los Angeles to New York with no one touching the controls by the end of 2017. Source: Tesla Autopilot (Wikipedia) |
Wrong | 66% → 50% (−16.7 pts) | ||
Tesla Model 3 deliveries will begin in late 2017. The first 30 cars were handed over on 28 July 2017; volume production took much longer. Source: Tesla Model 3 (Wikipedia) |
Right | 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts) |
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