Prediction Track Record

Met Office: prediction track record

The UK's national weather service

Credibility – Too few to score 10 years half-life
All-time
–no decay
Resolved
2
Right
0
Wrong
2
Brier score
0.87coin flip 0.25
Last resolved
28 Feb 2010

Credibility half-life

Met Office: credibility half-life chartCredibility of Met Office from 2 Mar 2009 to 14 Oct 2026, with a 10 years half-life. 2 resolved predictions marked on the line. Now 40%.0%25%50%75%100%201020152020202531 Aug 2009: Summer 2009 in the UK is odds-on to be a barbecue summer: warmer and drier than recent ones. (wrong)28 Feb 2010: Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than the previous winter, with about a 1 in 7 chance of a cold one. (wrong)40%coin flip

Scored 14 Oct 2026. How the score works

Resolved predictions

PredictionMadeResolvedOutcomeEffect on score

Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than the previous winter, with about a 1 in 7 chance of a cold one.

Stated chance 86%

It was the UK's coldest winter since 1978/79, 2.0°C below the 1971-2000 average.

Source: The very cold winter of 2009-10 (TheWeatherOutlook)

 Wrong 34% → 29% (−5.0 pts)

Summer 2009 in the UK is odds-on to be a barbecue summer: warmer and drier than recent ones.

July 2009 was one of the wettest on record in the UK.

Source: Met Office (Wikipedia)

 Wrong 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts)

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