Sam Wang: prediction track record
Neuroscientist, runs the Princeton Election Consortium
- All-time
- 57%no decay
- Resolved
- 5
- Right
- 3
- Wrong
- 2
- Brier score
- 0.40coin flip 0.25
- Last resolved
- 3 Nov 2020
Credibility half-life
- Right
- Wrong
- Partly
- Coin flip, 50%
Scored 14 Oct 2026. How the score works
Resolved predictions
| Prediction | Made | Resolved | Outcome | Effect on score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election. Source: 2020 United States presidential election (Wikipedia) |
Right | 49% → 59% (+10.0 pts) | ||
Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election. Stated chance 99%The consortium gave Clinton more than a 99% chance. Wang had promised to eat a bug if Trump won 240 electoral votes, and did so on CNN. Source: Why I ate a bug (Caltech Alumni) |
Wrong | 62% → 49% (−12.8 pts) | ||
Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012. |
Right | 53% → 64% (+10.9 pts) | ||
Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election. |
Right | 36% → 53% (+17.0 pts) | ||
John Kerry wins the 2004 presidential election. His poll aggregate pointed to Bush; he overrode it with an assumption about undecided voters and later called that a humbling mistake. Source: In a hot election, Sam Wang sticks to the math (Princeton Info) |
Wrong | 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts) |
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