Nate Silver: prediction track record
Founder of FiveThirtyEight, now writes Silver Bulletin
- All-time
- 58%no decay
- Resolved
- 6
- Right
- 3
- Wrong
- 3
- Brier score
- 0.29coin flip 0.25
- Last resolved
- 5 Nov 2024
Credibility half-life
- Right
- Wrong
- Partly
- Coin flip, 50%
Scored 14 Oct 2026. How the score works
Resolved predictions
| Prediction | Made | Resolved | Outcome | Effect on score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election. Stated chance 50%Silver Bulletin's final model had Harris winning 40,012 of 80,000 simulations, effectively a coin flip. Source: 2024 United States presidential election (Wikipedia) |
Wrong | 55% → 54% (−0.9 pts) | ||
Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election. Stated chance 89%Final FiveThirtyEight forecast: Biden favoured in 89 of 100 simulations. Source: 2020 United States presidential election (Wikipedia) |
Right | 49% → 56% (+7.3 pts) | ||
Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election. Stated chance 71.4%Final FiveThirtyEight forecast gave Clinton a 71.4% chance, higher uncertainty than most other models. Source: 2016 United States presidential election (Wikipedia) |
Wrong | 53% → 48% (−4.6 pts) | ||
Donald Trump does not win the 2016 Republican nomination. Stated chance 98%Silver put Trump's chances at about 2%, a judgement he later said was not model-based and called a mistake. Source: Nate Silver got Donald Trump all wrong, and he knows it (Bustle) |
Wrong | 68% → 53% (−15.2 pts) | ||
Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012. Stated chance 90.9%Final forecast gave Obama a 90.9% chance and called all 50 states correctly. Source: Nate Silver (Wikipedia) |
Right | 64% → 71% (+7.2 pts) | ||
Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election. The final FiveThirtyEight map also called 49 of 50 states correctly, missing Indiana. Source: 2008 United States presidential election (Wikipedia) |
Right | 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts) |
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