Prediction Track Record

Larry Summers: prediction track record

Economist, former US Treasury Secretary

Credibility 56% Leans right 10 years half-life
All-time
60%no decay
Resolved
3
Right
2
Wrong
1
Last resolved
10 Oct 2024

Credibility half-life

Larry Summers: credibility half-life chartCredibility of Larry Summers from 16 Jun 2019 to 14 Oct 2026, with a 10 years half-life. 3 resolved predictions marked on the line. Now 56%.0%25%50%75%100%2020202120222023202420252026Dec 2019: The US faces secular stagnation: weak demand will keep interest rates low for years. (right)13 Jul 2022: The 2021 American Rescue Plan risks setting off inflation of a kind not seen in a generation. (right)10 Oct 2024: Containing inflation will take five years of unemployment above 5%, or a shorter spell at a higher rate. (wrong)56%coin flip

Scored 14 Oct 2026. How the score works

Resolved predictions

PredictionMadeResolvedOutcomeEffect on score

Containing inflation will take five years of unemployment above 5%, or a shorter spell at a higher rate.

Inflation fell to 2.4% by September 2024 while unemployment stayed at or below 4.3%.

Source: Larry Summers says unemployment must rise to cool inflation (Fortune)

 Wrong 72% → 56% (−15.7 pts)

The 2021 American Rescue Plan risks setting off inflation of a kind not seen in a generation.

US consumer price inflation reached 9.1% for June 2022, the highest since 1981.

Source: Inflation archives (Lawrence H. Summers)

 Right 65% → 74% (+9.2 pts)

The US faces secular stagnation: weak demand will keep interest rates low for years.

The Federal Reserve's policy rate stayed at or below 2.5% from 2008 through 2019.

Source: Secular stagnation (Wikipedia)

 Right 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts)

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