Paul Ehrlich: prediction track record

Biologist, author of The Population Bomb

Credibility 47% Record faded 10 years half-life

Credibility half-life

Half-life

Scored 14 Oct 2026. How the score works

Prediction	Made	Resolved	Outcome	Effect on score
England will not exist in the year 2000 (offered at even money). Stated chance 50% Source: Paul R. Ehrlich (Wikipedia)	1971	1 Jan 2000	Wrong	36% → 40% (+3.7 pts)
The prices of chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten will rise between 1980 and 1990. All five fell in inflation-adjusted terms and Ehrlich paid Julian Simon on the wager. Source: Simon-Ehrlich wager (Wikipedia)	29 Sep 1980	29 Sep 1990	Wrong	40% → 29% (−11.6 pts)
In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death. Famines occurred, but nothing on that scale; food output grew faster than population through the Green Revolution. Source: The Population Bomb (Wikipedia)	1968	31 Dec 1979	Wrong	50% → 33% (−16.7 pts)

Prediction

Made

Resolved

Outcome

Effect on score

England will not exist in the year 2000 (offered at even money).

Stated chance 50%

1971

1 Jan 2000

Wrong

36% → 40% (+3.7 pts)

The prices of chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten will rise between 1980 and 1990.

All five fell in inflation-adjusted terms and Ehrlich paid Julian Simon on the wager.

29 Sep 1980

29 Sep 1990

Wrong

40% → 29% (−11.6 pts)

In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death.

Famines occurred, but nothing on that scale; food output grew faster than population through the Green Revolution.

1968

31 Dec 1979

Wrong

50% → 33% (−16.7 pts)