Prediction Track Record

Michael Fish: prediction track record

BBC weather presenter from 1974 to 2004

Credibility – Too few to score 10 years half-life
All-time
–no decay
Resolved
1
Right
0
Wrong
1
Last resolved
16 Oct 1987

Credibility half-life

Michael Fish: credibility half-life chartCredibility of Michael Fish from 17 Apr 1987 to 14 Oct 2026, with a 10 years half-life. 1 resolved prediction marked on the line. Now 48%.0%25%50%75%100%1990199520002005201020152020202516 Oct 1987: There is no hurricane on the way to the UK. (wrong)48%coin flip

Scored 14 Oct 2026. How the score works

Resolved predictions

PredictionMadeResolvedOutcomeEffect on score

There is no hurricane on the way to the UK.

Hours later the Great Storm of 1987 brought hurricane-force gusts to southern England. Fish has said the remark referred to a storm near Florida.

Source: Great storm of 1987 (Wikipedia)

 Wrong 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts)

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