https://alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev/feeds/paul-krugman.xml Paul Krugman: resolved predictions 2022-07-21T00:00:00Z tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2022-07-21:paul-krugman/2021-inflation-transitory Paul Krugman: wrong on "The 2021 rise in inflation will be transitory" 2022-07-21T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. The 2021 rise in inflation will be transitory. Made 2021, resolved 21 Jul 2022. US inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. Krugman published a column titled "I was wrong about inflation". Effect on Paul Krugman's credibility: 45% → 35% (−9.8 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-11-15:paul-krugman/2016-markets-never Paul Krugman: wrong on "After Trump's election, markets will never recover and a global recession is likely" 2016-11-15T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. After Trump's election, markets will never recover and a global recession is likely. Made 9 Nov 2016, resolved Nov 2016. US stock indices reached record highs within weeks. Krugman retracted the call three days later. Effect on Paul Krugman's credibility: 57% → 44% (−13.0 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2015-12-15:paul-krugman/2009-deficits-rates Paul Krugman: right on "Large US budget deficits will not drive interest rates up while the economy stays depressed" 2015-12-15T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Right. Large US budget deficits will not drive interest rates up while the economy stays depressed. Made 2009, resolved Dec 2015. The 10-year Treasury yield averaged under 3% in every year from 2011 to 2015. Effect on Paul Krugman's credibility: 40% → 57% (+17.1 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2005-07-01:paul-krugman/1998-internet-fax Paul Krugman: wrong on "By 2005 or so it will be clear that the internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's" 2005-07-01T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. By 2005 or so it will be clear that the internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. Made Jun 1998, resolved 2005. Effect on Paul Krugman's credibility: 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts).