https://alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev/feeds/paul-ehrlich.xml Paul Ehrlich: resolved predictions 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2000-01-01:paul-ehrlich/1971-england-2000 Paul Ehrlich: wrong on "England will not exist in the year 2000 (offered at even money)" 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. England will not exist in the year 2000 (offered at even money). Made 1971, resolved 1 Jan 2000. Effect on Paul Ehrlich's credibility: 36% → 40% (+3.7 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1990-09-29:paul-ehrlich/1980-metals-wager Paul Ehrlich: wrong on "The prices of chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten will rise between 1980 and 1990" 1990-09-29T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. The prices of chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten will rise between 1980 and 1990. Made 29 Sep 1980, resolved 29 Sep 1990. All five fell in inflation-adjusted terms and Ehrlich paid Julian Simon on the wager. Effect on Paul Ehrlich's credibility: 40% → 29% (−11.6 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1979-12-31:paul-ehrlich/1968-mass-starvation Paul Ehrlich: wrong on "In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death" 1979-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death. Made 1968, resolved 31 Dec 1979. Famines occurred, but nothing on that scale; food output grew faster than population through the Green Revolution. Effect on Paul Ehrlich's credibility: 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts).