https://alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev/feeds/nouriel-roubini.xml Nouriel Roubini: resolved predictions 2023-12-31T00:00:00Z tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2023-12-31:nouriel-roubini/2022-long-ugly-recession Nouriel Roubini: wrong on "The US will fall into a severe, long and ugly recession starting late 2022 and lasting through 2023" 2023-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. The US will fall into a severe, long and ugly recession starting late 2022 and lasting through 2023. Made 19 Sep 2022, resolved 31 Dec 2023. The US economy grew in 2023 and no recession was declared. Effect on Nouriel Roubini's credibility: 56% → 42% (−13.5 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-06-08:nouriel-roubini/2018-recession-2020 Nouriel Roubini: partly on "The conditions are in place for a recession and financial crisis in 2020" 2020-06-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Partly. The conditions are in place for a recession and financial crisis in 2020. Made 13 Sep 2018, resolved 8 Jun 2020. A US recession did begin in 2020, but it was caused by the pandemic rather than the factors the article listed. Effect on Nouriel Roubini's credibility: 59% → 57% (−2.7 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2008-12-01:nouriel-roubini/2006-housing-crisis Nouriel Roubini: right on "The US faces a housing bust, a deep recession and a banking crisis" 2008-12-01T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Right. The US faces a housing bust, a deep recession and a banking crisis. Made 7 Sep 2006, resolved 1 Dec 2008. Made in a speech at the IMF. The NBER later dated the recession from December 2007. Effect on Nouriel Roubini's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).