https://alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev/feeds/nate-silver.xml Nate Silver: resolved predictions 2024-11-05T00:00:00Z tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2024-11-05:nate-silver/2024-president Nate Silver: wrong on "Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election" 2024-11-05T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election. Made 5 Nov 2024, resolved 5 Nov 2024. Silver Bulletin's final model had Harris winning 40,012 of 80,000 simulations, effectively a coin flip. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 55% → 54% (−0.9 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-11-03:nate-silver/2020-president Nate Silver: right on "Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election" 2020-11-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Right. Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election. Made 3 Nov 2020, resolved 3 Nov 2020. Final FiveThirtyEight forecast: Biden favoured in 89 of 100 simulations. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 49% → 56% (+7.3 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-11-08:nate-silver/2016-president Nate Silver: wrong on "Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election" 2016-11-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election. Made 8 Nov 2016, resolved 8 Nov 2016. Final FiveThirtyEight forecast gave Clinton a 71.4% chance, higher uncertainty than most other models. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 53% → 48% (−4.6 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-07-19:nate-silver/2016-trump-nomination Nate Silver: wrong on "Donald Trump does not win the 2016 Republican nomination" 2016-07-19T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. Donald Trump does not win the 2016 Republican nomination. Made Aug 2015, resolved 19 Jul 2016. Silver put Trump's chances at about 2%, a judgement he later said was not model-based and called a mistake. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 68% → 53% (−15.2 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2012-11-06:nate-silver/2012-president Nate Silver: right on "Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012" 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Right. Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012. Made 6 Nov 2012, resolved 6 Nov 2012. Final forecast gave Obama a 90.9% chance and called all 50 states correctly. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 64% → 71% (+7.2 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2008-11-04:nate-silver/2008-president Nate Silver: right on "Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election" 2008-11-04T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Right. Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election. Made 4 Nov 2008, resolved 4 Nov 2008. The final FiveThirtyEight map also called 49 of 50 states correctly, missing Indiana. Effect on Nate Silver's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).