Prediction Track Record

Compare track records

Nate Silver and Allan Lichtman: credibility over timeTwo credibility lines with a 10 years half-life. Nate Silver now 54%, Allan Lichtman now 59%.0%25%50%75%100%19902000201020204 Nov 2008: Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election. (right)6 Nov 2012: Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012. (right)19 Jul 2016: Donald Trump does not win the 2016 Republican nomination. (wrong)8 Nov 2016: Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election. (wrong)3 Nov 2020: Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election. (right)5 Nov 2024: Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election. (wrong)54%6 Nov 1984: Ronald Reagan wins re-election in 1984. (right)8 Nov 1988: George H. W. Bush wins the 1988 presidential election. (right)3 Nov 1992: Bill Clinton wins the 1992 presidential election. (right)5 Nov 1996: Bill Clinton wins re-election in 1996. (right)12 Dec 2000: Al Gore wins the 2000 presidential election. (partly)2 Nov 2004: George W. Bush wins re-election in 2004. (right)4 Nov 2008: Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election. (right)6 Nov 2012: Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012. (right)8 Nov 2016: Donald Trump wins the 2016 presidential election. (partly)3 Nov 2020: Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election. (right)5 Nov 2024: Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election. (wrong)59%coin flip
FigureResolvedCredibilityVerdict
Nate Silver654%Coin flip
Allan Lichtman1159%Leans right