https://alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev/feeds/larry-summers.xml Larry Summers: resolved predictions 2024-10-10T00:00:00Z tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2024-10-10:larry-summers/2022-unemployment-5pct Larry Summers: wrong on "Containing inflation will take five years of unemployment above 5%, or a shorter spell at a higher rate" 2024-10-10T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. Containing inflation will take five years of unemployment above 5%, or a shorter spell at a higher rate. Made Jun 2022, resolved 10 Oct 2024. Inflation fell to 2.4% by September 2024 while unemployment stayed at or below 4.3%. Effect on Larry Summers's credibility: 72% → 56% (−15.7 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2022-07-13:larry-summers/2021-stimulus-inflation Larry Summers: right on "The 2021 American Rescue Plan risks setting off inflation of a kind not seen in a generation" 2022-07-13T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Right. The 2021 American Rescue Plan risks setting off inflation of a kind not seen in a generation. Made 4 Feb 2021, resolved 13 Jul 2022. US consumer price inflation reached 9.1% for June 2022, the highest since 1981. Effect on Larry Summers's credibility: 65% → 74% (+9.2 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2019-12-15:larry-summers/2013-secular-stagnation Larry Summers: right on "The US faces secular stagnation: weak demand will keep interest rates low for years" 2019-12-15T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Right. The US faces secular stagnation: weak demand will keep interest rates low for years. Made Nov 2013, resolved Dec 2019. The Federal Reserve's policy rate stayed at or below 2.5% from 2008 through 2019. Effect on Larry Summers's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).