https://alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev/feeds/sam-wang.xml 2020-11-03T00:00:00Z tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-11-03:sam-wang/2020-president 2020-11-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election. Made Nov 2020, resolved 3 Nov 2020. Effect on Sam Wang's credibility: 49% → 59% (+10.0 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-11-08:sam-wang/2016-president 2016-11-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election. Made 8 Nov 2016, resolved 8 Nov 2016. The consortium gave Clinton more than a 99% chance. Wang had promised to eat a bug if Trump won 240 electoral votes, and did so on CNN. Effect on Sam Wang's credibility: 62% → 49% (−12.8 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2012-11-06:sam-wang/2012-president 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012. Made Nov 2012, resolved 6 Nov 2012. Effect on Sam Wang's credibility: 53% → 64% (+10.9 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2008-11-04:sam-wang/2008-president 2008-11-04T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election. Made Nov 2008, resolved 4 Nov 2008. Effect on Sam Wang's credibility: 36% → 53% (+17.0 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2004-11-02:sam-wang/2004-president 2004-11-02T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. John Kerry wins the 2004 presidential election. Made Nov 2004, resolved 2 Nov 2004. His poll aggregate pointed to Bush; he overrode it with an assumption about undecided voters and later called that a humbling mistake. Effect on Sam Wang's credibility: 50% → 33% (−16.7 pts).