https://alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev/feeds/ann-selzer.xml 2024-11-05T00:00:00Z tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2024-11-05:ann-selzer/2024-iowa-president 2024-11-05T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Kamala Harris carries Iowa in 2024 (final Iowa Poll: Harris +3). Made 2 Nov 2024, resolved 5 Nov 2024. Trump won Iowa by 13.2 points. Selzer retired from election polling later that month. Effect on Ann Selzer's credibility: 76% → 61% (−14.8 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-11-03:ann-selzer/2020-iowa-president 2020-11-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Donald Trump carries Iowa in 2020 (final Iowa Poll: Trump +7). Made 31 Oct 2020, resolved 3 Nov 2020. Trump won Iowa by 8.2 points, while most other polls showed a close race. Effect on Ann Selzer's credibility: 74% → 79% (+5.4 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-11-08:ann-selzer/2016-iowa-president 2016-11-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Donald Trump carries Iowa in 2016 (final Iowa Poll: Trump +7). Made 5 Nov 2016, resolved 8 Nov 2016. Trump won Iowa by 9.4 points. Effect on Ann Selzer's credibility: 71% → 77% (+6.6 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2014-11-04:ann-selzer/2014-iowa-senate 2014-11-04T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Joni Ernst wins the 2014 Iowa Senate race (final Iowa Poll: Ernst 51%, Braley 44%). Made 1 Nov 2014, resolved 4 Nov 2014. Ernst won by 8.5 points. It was the only late poll close to the final margin. Effect on Ann Selzer's credibility: 62% → 72% (+10.5 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2008-01-03:ann-selzer/2008-iowa-caucus 2008-01-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses (final Iowa Poll: Obama 32%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 24%). Made 1 Jan 2008, resolved 3 Jan 2008. Effect on Ann Selzer's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).