https://alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev/feeds/allan-lichtman.xml 2024-11-05T00:00:00Z tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2024-11-05:allan-lichtman/2024-president 2024-11-05T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Wrong. Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election. Made 5 Sep 2024, resolved 5 Nov 2024. Lichtman said afterwards he was taking time to assess why he was wrong. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 72% → 60% (−12.1 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-11-03:allan-lichtman/2020-president 2020-11-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election. Made 5 Aug 2020, resolved 3 Nov 2020. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 69% → 74% (+5.3 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2016-11-08:allan-lichtman/2016-president 2016-11-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Partly. Donald Trump wins the 2016 presidential election. Made 23 Sep 2016, resolved 8 Nov 2016. Trump won the presidency but lost the popular vote, which Lichtman's own book said the keys predict. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 76% → 71% (−4.4 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2012-11-06:allan-lichtman/2012-president 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012. Made 2010, resolved 6 Nov 2012. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 74% → 79% (+4.6 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2008-11-04:allan-lichtman/2008-president 2008-11-04T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Barack Obama wins the 2008 presidential election. Made 2008, resolved 4 Nov 2008. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 72% → 77% (+5.1 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2004-11-02:allan-lichtman/2004-president 2004-11-02T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. George W. Bush wins re-election in 2004. Made 2004, resolved 2 Nov 2004. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 68% → 74% (+5.9 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2000-12-12:allan-lichtman/2000-president 2000-12-12T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Partly. Al Gore wins the 2000 presidential election. Made 2000, resolved 12 Dec 2000. Gore won the popular vote, which the keys then claimed to predict; George W. Bush won the presidency after Bush v. Gore. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 76% → 70% (−5.0 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1996-11-05:allan-lichtman/1996-president 1996-11-05T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Bill Clinton wins re-election in 1996. Made 1996, resolved 5 Nov 1996. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 73% → 79% (+5.6 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1992-11-03:allan-lichtman/1992-president 1992-11-03T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Bill Clinton wins the 1992 presidential election. Made 1992, resolved 3 Nov 1992. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 70% → 77% (+6.9 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1988-11-08:allan-lichtman/1988-president 1988-11-08T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. George H. W. Bush wins the 1988 presidential election. Made 1988, resolved 8 Nov 1988. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 64% → 73% (+9.7 pts).

tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,1984-11-06:allan-lichtman/1984-president 1984-11-06T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record

Right. Ronald Reagan wins re-election in 1984. Made 1982, resolved 6 Nov 1984. Effect on Allan Lichtman's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).