https://alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev/feeds/elon-musk.xml Elon Musk: resolved predictions 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2025-12-31:elon-musk/2025-robotaxi-half-us Elon Musk: wrong on "Tesla's robotaxi service will cover half the US population by the end of 2025" 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. Tesla's robotaxi service will cover half the US population by the end of 2025. Made 23 Jul 2025, resolved 31 Dec 2025. At the end of 2025 the service ran in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area only. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 29% → 25% (−4.6 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2022-12-31:elon-musk/2017-mars-cargo-2022 Elon Musk: wrong on "SpaceX will land cargo ships on Mars in 2022" 2022-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. SpaceX will land cargo ships on Mars in 2022. Made 29 Sep 2017, resolved 31 Dec 2022. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 33% → 28% (−5.4 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-12-31:elon-musk/2019-million-robotaxis Elon Musk: wrong on "Tesla will have over a million robotaxis on the road in 2020" 2020-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. Tesla will have over a million robotaxis on the road in 2020. Made 22 Apr 2019, resolved 31 Dec 2020. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 39% → 32% (−7.1 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-04-30:elon-musk/2020-covid-zero Elon Musk: wrong on "The US will probably have close to zero new COVID-19 cases by the end of April 2020" 2020-04-30T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. The US will probably have close to zero new COVID-19 cases by the end of April 2020. Made 19 Mar 2020, resolved 30 Apr 2020. The US was recording tens of thousands of new cases a day at the end of April 2020. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 50% → 39% (−10.6 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2017-12-31:elon-musk/2016-coast-to-coast Elon Musk: wrong on "A Tesla will drive itself from Los Angeles to New York with no one touching the controls by the end of 2017" 2017-12-31T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. A Tesla will drive itself from Los Angeles to New York with no one touching the controls by the end of 2017. Made 19 Oct 2016, resolved 31 Dec 2017. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 66% → 50% (−16.7 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2017-07-28:elon-musk/2016-model-3-2017 Elon Musk: right on "Tesla Model 3 deliveries will begin in late 2017" 2017-07-28T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Right. Tesla Model 3 deliveries will begin in late 2017. Made 31 Mar 2016, resolved 28 Jul 2017. The first 30 cars were handed over on 28 July 2017; volume production took much longer. Effect on Elon Musk's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).