https://alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev/feeds/csu-hurricane-forecast.xml CSU hurricane forecast team: resolved predictions 2024-11-30T00:00:00Z tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2024-11-30:csu-hurricane-forecast/2024-season CSU hurricane forecast team: right on "The 2024 Atlantic season will be extremely active: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major (April outlook)" 2024-11-30T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Right. The 2024 Atlantic season will be extremely active: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major (April outlook). Made 4 Apr 2024, resolved 30 Nov 2024. 2024 had 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Effect on CSU hurricane forecast team's credibility: 58% → 67% (+9.3 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2020-11-30:csu-hurricane-forecast/2020-season CSU hurricane forecast team: right on "The 2020 Atlantic season will be more active than average: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes (April outlook)" 2020-11-30T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Right. The 2020 Atlantic season will be more active than average: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes (April outlook). Made 2 Apr 2020, resolved 30 Nov 2020. 2020 set a record with 30 named storms, so the direction was right and the counts far too low. Effect on CSU hurricane forecast team's credibility: 46% → 59% (+13.7 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2013-11-30:csu-hurricane-forecast/2013-season CSU hurricane forecast team: wrong on "The 2013 Atlantic season will be active: 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major (April outlook)" 2013-11-30T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Wrong. The 2013 Atlantic season will be active: 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major (April outlook). Made 10 Apr 2013, resolved 30 Nov 2013. 2013 had 14 named storms, 2 hurricanes and no major hurricanes. Effect on CSU hurricane forecast team's credibility: 61% → 44% (−17.1 pts). tag:alfheim-leader-credibility-decay-model.pages.dev,2005-11-30:csu-hurricane-forecast/2005-season CSU hurricane forecast team: right on "The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than average (April outlook)" 2005-11-30T00:00:00Z Prediction Track Record Right. The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than average (April outlook). Made Apr 2005, resolved 30 Nov 2005. 2005 produced 15 hurricanes, a record at the time, including Katrina. Effect on CSU hurricane forecast team's credibility: 50% → 67% (+16.7 pts).